Aims for the coming year include: 1. Development of a screening instrument with both concurrent and prognostic power for diverse outcomes by age-sex cohorts; 2. development of an instrument for measuring components of childhood depression; 3. investigation of stability and developmental change within environmental contexts; 4. investigation of historical change in child and parental behavior by ethnic background and sex of child; 5. determination of the extent to which the predictive power of the independent variables is a function of their stability; 6. comparison of causal models which postulate duration (additive effects over time) vs. change over time as critical in the developmental process; 7. development of the best causal models using path-analytic techniques for the major types of child pathology -anxiety, depression, aggression, antisocial behavior, and mentation problems; 8. construction of a more refined model of the stress-strain relationship, by utilizing specific stress scores for marital, parental, demographic, and physical illness stress; 9. examination of the age, sex, ethnic and SES moderators of the stress-strain relationship and predictive courses; 10. to better understand environmental moderators of change, investigate why improvement of poor or minority families does not improve child behavior outcomes, while deterioration of white affluent families doubles their children's poor outcome rate; 11. preparation of book manuscript which represents the major findings of the longitudinal analysis and a conceptualization of the types of psychopathology and types of environments of children and adolescents.